Header
Nav_shadow
spacer
 


Search:
 
.
spacer
 
重要经济数据预告

Daily Asia Wrap

   
   
     
   
Daily Asia Wrap
[ 3 June 2013 ]

The huge Chicago PMI print on Friday (58.7 vs 50.0 expected) and strong Uni of Michigan confidence figures (84.5 vs 83.7 expected) saw a continuation of the US-Rates-Higher-USD-Stronger tapering theme, but by NY close much of the move in Treasuries had been reversed, most likely on month end re-balancing action. Still, the data continues to print in the USD's favour and the broad theme of USD strength continues to play out. Weakness in equities and in other EM currencies on Friday ¡§C and surging measures of volatility across bonds, equities and currencies ¡§C all argue against being short USD. US data continues to be the main market driver, with tonight's ISM and Wednesday's ADP employment the major distractions before the main non-farm payrolls event on Friday. For today, the better-than-expected Chinese PMI on Saturday (50.8 vs 50.0 expected) provides some hope of support for the region; note, too, that South Korean trade numbers were a little stronger. Still, the direction out of the blocks is likely to be for a stronger USD. On the back of the stronger PMI, the CNY fix will be important to a CNY/CNH market that was looking increasingly nervous on Friday afternoon. Plenty of data in the region today, with official and/or private PMIs in China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore scattered across the day. Australian retail sales will be closely watched, even if the lower AUD has likely taken a rate cut off the table at the RBA's meeting tomorrow. On Friday, all precious metals pared back gains on month end flows as well as strength in the greenback. Gold tested $1422 in the Asian session but did not see any fresh follow through buying up there. Again solid selling on the AM and PM Fix in London was evident and provided the platform for the metal to test towards $1385. Physical support emerged there as it had done a number of times last week and propped the metal up into the close. All in all the gold managed to round out the week in positive territory at +0.1%, Looking at a longer time frame, over the month of May gold dropped ~6% following April's decline of ~7%, with the primary protagonist being the liquidation of ETF holdings by funds. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, remained relatively unchanged at 1,013.15 t on Thur and Fri, after rising for the first time in three weeks on Wed. We still remain at near four-year lows however, having lost nearly 337 t in 2013 so far. Despite all these momentum sellers bailing on ETFs, people who are interested in physical gold bars and coins remain active - particularly in China and India. Central banks also continue to purchase which is keeping the metal supported. CFTC : Specs increased their bullish bets in gold futures and options, trimmed net shorts in copper, while it added bullish bets in silver to turn the market into a small net last week - net long of 63 contracts. Specs raised their net long in gold by 12,410 contracts to 48,096 . The market opened today and some light demand was seen from the get go. Globex ran a few dollars higher in fairly thin conditions and volumes remained light. China were buyers on the lower cash prices, which saw the SGE arb move out to around $17 over spot. This was up about $5 from late last week, when cash gold was trading around $1420, but still remains short of the $20-25 dollars seen earlier last week and the week before. The market topped out around $1396.50 as the buying petered out and we settled in to trade sideways in a narrow $1393-95 band throughout the afternoon. There was a fair bit of data out in Asia today kicking off with Japanese capital spending which came in a little better than expected at -3.9% (-6.0% expected, -8.7% prior), this had little effect on the markets. Australian retail sales came in a touch lower than expected at +0.2% (+0.3% expected, -0.4% previous) which weighed a little on the AUD marching it 20 pips lower. Chinese non manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3 (54.5 prior) and the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI came in lower at 49.2 (49.6 expected, 50.4 prior), which was 0.4 below the flash PMI. The weaker data came primarily from a drop in total new orders which declined for the first time since last September. Demand from abroad also weakened over the month with new export orders falling for the second month in a row. AUD was weaker following the announcement and the metals were also a touch softer. The dollar was a touch softer over the course of the day and equities were mixed with the Nikkei -2.6%, Shanghai composite +0.3%, HangSeng +0.5% and ASX200 -0.5% at time of writing. Ahead today we have a host of European manufacturing PMI's, followed by Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales from the US. Tomorrow we have the RBA rate announcement with the BoE and ECB to follow later in the week. On Friday we have NFP's to round out the week. Best of luck! Kind Regards, Alex Thorndike Senior Trader - Precious Metals & FX MKS Capital Pty Ltd Level 4, 60 Pitt Street, SYDNEY 2000 AUSTRALIA PH: +612 8227 8930 DEALING: +612 9221 9331 MOB: +61 412 636 793 FAX: +612 8227 8999 Email: athorndike@mkscapital.com.au Web: www.mks.ch

   
 
 
spacer
Design by Camoflush